Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
