A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
